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Can the favourite deliver again?
As with yesterday, we’re sharing our thoughts on the opening race of the day with our website visitors. We’ll be doing the same across all four days of the Cheltenham Festival. Tomorrow’s preview will be published later this evening, as today promises to be another busy one on the punting front.
What We Learned From Day One
One clear takeaway from Day One at Cheltenham: you must race up with the pace. Absolutely nothing came from off the speed on the opening day.
In these large festival fields, congestion becomes a real factor. Even when horses aren’t falling from errors, the sheer traffic puts extra pressure on jumping, and any mistake can quickly cost valuable ground.
With that in mind, experienced runners proven in big fields should have a clear advantage this week.
There were also several hard-luck stories yesterday. One of our selections, POURQUOI PAS PAPA (25/1 early exchanges), was repeatedly stopped in his run and suffered badly from traffic problems. With a clearer passage, he would have gone very close.
Aside from that, the Cheltenham spectacle never disappoints — and we’re looking forward to taking on the bookies again today.
Cheltenham Day Two: First Race Betting Preview & Pick
Race 1 Pick – NO DRAMA THIS END (5/2)
Yesterday’s Champion Hurdle third, THE NEW LION, won this race last season, and history suggests the market often gets this contest right.
5 of the last 10 favourites have won
3 others were won by second favourites priced 3/1 or shorter
While this year’s renewal looks more competitive on paper, the standout bet once again appears to be the favourite at around 5/2.
Before explaining why, let’s quickly assess some of the main rivals.
Other Contenders
Willie Mullins boasts an outstanding record in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle (formerly the Ballymore), winning four of the last ten renewals, and he fires a six-runner salvo today.
Picking the stable’s number one is far from easy, although KING RASKO GREY slightly appeals over the shorter-priced SOBER.
SKYLINE HUSTLE arrives in excellent form, but it’s notable that Jack Kennedy has opted to ride stablemate BALLYFAD instead. The five-year-old was only narrowly beaten last time after a carefully managed campaign and should run well at around 12/1.
Elsewhere, ACT OF INNOCENCE looks short enough at 10/1. While trained by Nicky Henderson, he has plenty to find on official ratings.
The same can be said for BOSSMAN JACK, who is rated 134 and faces a stiff task at this level — especially considering several runners below him in the market are bigger prices with stronger profiles.
If you’re looking for a bigger-priced horse to hit the frame, SHUTTLE DIPLOMACY would be the one I’d side with at around 33/1.
Why NO DRAMA THIS END Stands Out
However, the horse that really jumps off the page is NO DRAMA THIS END.
The Paul Nicholls-trained six-year-old has improved with every run and looked extremely impressive when winning over course and distance earlier in the season.
He then followed up with authoritative victories at Sandown and Newbury, beating inferior opposition with something clearly left in the locker.
By WALK IN THE PARK, he should have no issue securing a prominent position, which — based on yesterday’s evidence — could prove absolutely crucial.
The ground conditions look ideal, and provided he gets a clear run through the inevitable traffic, everything points in one direction.
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