Cheltenham Festival Day 4: First Race Preview & Betting Tip

We head into the final day of the Cheltenham Festival betting with the bookmakers’ money. That’s at least a positive, as it means we are guaranteed a ninth consecutive profitable Festival.

On a less positive note, Cheltenham haven’t exactly been doing a stellar job of organising the show this week. Yesterday we saw a high-profile withdrawal when Willie Mullins and JP McManus decided to pull FACT OR FILE because of the fast ground. Combined with a starter who has managed to ruin the start of several races, those responsible for running the meeting will need to get their act together.

With that said, we move on to the Triumph Hurdle, and here are our thoughts on the opening race of the final day.

I’m struggling to understand why the Willie Mullins-trained SELMA DE VARY heads the betting market. While she showed a good level for her former trainer in France, her win came on very testing ground. And while she made a solid debut for the champion trainer when finishing second to NARCISCO HAS, she wasn’t particularly fancied in the betting beforehand.

Yes, there is the Mullins factor, and she does receive a valuable sex allowance. Nevertheless, she strikes me as more of a grinder than a speed horse, and today’s likely conditions could count against her.

Mullins is responsible for nine of the 20 runners, including second favourite PROACTIF. He too is a French import and has won both of his starts to date. The ground shouldn’t pose any problems for him, and I would rate him the pick of the Mullins runners.

Gordon Elliott finally got on the scoresheet yesterday with WODHOOH, but that still leaves him with just one winner from 37 runners at the meeting. Here he saddles the unbeaten filly HIGHLAND CRYSTAL, who must have a similar chance to the favourite based on her form so far. However, like a few in this field, she still has something to prove on quicker ground.

Dan Skelton is responsible for another unbeaten runner in MAESTRO CONTI. The son of PRINCE OF GIBRALTAR won his last race over this course and distance, and he also has a win on good ground to his name. The Skelton team sound bullish about his chances, and he should certainly be involved at the business end of the race.

However, the one I readily prefer is the northern raider MINELLA STUDY, a former Flat performer who has done incredibly well since switching to hurdles.

The way the son of STUDY OF MAN won his last race over this course and distance is the main reason for making him the selection. On that occasion, despite giving 7lb to WINSTON JUNIOR, he left that talented rival for dead.

That form has already been franked, with WINSTON JUNIOR finishing second of 22 to the well-handicapped SARATOGA earlier in the week at this meeting.

Racing in a bigger field should help Ryan Mania get him settled better, and his turn of foot could prove decisive up the Cheltenham hill.

Betting Tip: MINELLA STUDY – 6/1

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