Cheltenham Festival Thursday: Day 3 Preview & Betting Tip.
What a rollercoaster Wednesday turned out to be. After the frustration of two fallers and a pulled-up runner in the opening three races, the tide turned in spectacular fashion. We bounced back big time, landing three lovely winners at very nice odds.
We are now in the enviable position of being “up against the house” for the remainder of the Festival, but we aren’t settling for just breaking even. We’re greedy for more winners. As always, I’m sharing the opener here; the rest of the card is reserved exclusively for my weekly subscribers.
Cheltenham Festival Thursday: Day 3 Preview & Betting Tip
13:20 The Opener
The Selection: OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW Odds: 9/2 (5/1+ on Exchanges)
The Market Dynamics
Historically, this race belonged to Willie Mullins, who cleaned up with five consecutive wins between 2016 and 2021. However, the tide has shifted recently. In the last five seasons, the trophies have been shared by Henry De Bromhead (twice), Jeremy Scott, Harry Fry, and Jamie Snowden.
This year, the market is dominated by the Mullins-trained favorite, Bambino Fever, last season’s Champion Bumper winner. I made this daughter of Jukebox Jury my biggest bet at the Festival last year, and she duly bolted up. However, her transition to obstacles hasn’t been entirely flawless.
The Case Against the Favorite
Bambino Fever was turned over at 1/4 on her hurdles debut. While she’s since landed odds of 1/10 in a weak Fairyhouse contest, the handicapper’s assessment of 138 feels speculative at best. It’s a rating I’m simply not buying into yet. While Paul Townend’s mount has the scope and vital course experience, she hasn’t proven enough over timber to justify being such a short price in a field of this quality.
The Main Challengers
The De Bromhead Pair: Henry De Bromhead saddles both Echoing Silence and Full Of Life. Both would be of more interest if the yard were firing on all cylinders, but the stable’s current form is a significant deterrent.
Charme Du Faust: Another Mullins inmate, this 4-year-old receives a fascinating weight-for-age allowance. Don’t be surprised to see her staying on into the frame.
The Outsiders:La Conquiere is a physical type but looks out of her depth in a Grade 1 of this nature. Similarly, Kingston Queen looks up against it at these weights; she’d be much better suited to a handicap where she’d be 8lb better off.
The Verdict
The value lies firmly with the Gordon Elliott-trained OLDSCHOOL OUTLAW. She has already lowered the colors of the favorite when they met at Naas. While that was on heavy ground with both making their hurdles debut, the way this daughter of Walk In The Park battled up the hill stayed with me.
She backed that up with an even more authoritative performance next time out, cruising home by six lengths in a Grade 3. While the quicker ground on Thursday is a slight question mark, it’s certainly not a deal-breaker given her pedigree and cruising speed.
You don’t need much “fantasy” to see that the price discrepancy here is wrong. It is incredibly hard to justify the favorite being odds-on while Mark Walsh’s mount—who has already beaten her—is available at a juicy 9/2.
BET: Oldschool Outlaw (Win)
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