Cheltenham Special: 3 Strong Bets Lined Up

Cheltenham Special: 3 Strong Bets Lined Up

A cracking weekend of racing lies ahead, and it starts with today’s card at Cheltenham. If you’re betting for the right reasons, stick with us and learn through our tutorials and YouTube channel.

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This is an interesting novice chase, and I’m inclined to trust the official ratings. Let’s run through some of the key contenders, starting with the James Owen-trained ONE BIG BANG.

Connections waited 16 hurdle races before sending this 7-year-old chasing. Considering he’ll be eight in a couple of months, you’d expect a natural chaser to have made the switch earlier. While that would concern me less at a smaller track, Cheltenham’s fences take some jumping!

Paul Nicholls’ ISAAC DES OBEAUX should make a chaser in time, but he’s the lowest-rated horse in the field. Following a recent 3rd of 14 over 2m4f, I understand Neil Mulholland’s logic in stepping DOUBLE POWERFUL up in trip. However, while he was mighty progressive over hurdles, I’m not fully convinced about his ability over fences.

At the top of the market is the Olly Murphy-trained WADE OUT, a 6-year-old who won first time out over fences. The son of Shantou is lightly raced, should appreciate the longer trip, and clearly has room for further improvement. Nevertheless, if this were a handicap, LEAVE OF ABSENCE would be giving the favourite nine pounds, whereas here he concedes only three in this Class 1 novice chase.

Anthony Honeyball’s gelding might be the oldest horse in the race, but he’s also the least exposed. The son of Masked Marvel has run just eight times—winning five—and he’s already proven around this track. Why not again?

This is a top race, and I’m taking on the favourite JONBON. One thing is certain: the Nicky Henderson-trained 9-year-old is proven at the highest level. He’s rated 168, and although he hasn’t won at the Festival, his Cheltenham record is rock solid. He’s won this race for the past two years and is 4 from 4 in the month of November.

With that said, he was beaten at short odds in two of his last three races, and he made hard work of landing 1/3 in this very race last year.

The Skelton-trained and -ridden L’EAU DU SUD has won four of six chase starts, including one over this course and distance at this time last season. On that occasion he jumped beautifully and beat WESTERN ZEPHYR by 11 lengths. However, his jumping wasn’t as slick in his final two runs of the campaign.

I’m taking a chance on the Evan Williams-trained LIBERTY HUNTER, who receives a very handy 6lb from the favourite and 3lb from L’EAU DU SUD. While not as prolific as the top two, the 9-year-old goes well fresh and is ideally suited by this track. With Harry Cobden back on board—and with heavy rain this morning in his favour—there’s plenty to like.

NO DRAMA THIS END was a high-class bumper horse and should do well over hurdles. However, Paul Nicholls is throwing the 5-year-old straight into the deep end, and he offers no betting value.

GREAT FLEET is rated 126 over hurdles, a mark that entitles him to be competitive for a place. Gavin Cromwell’s WE’LL ONLY HAVE DONE might have won last time but for falling at the final hurdle; if his confidence is intact, he too can be involved in the finish.

As for the winner, I’m not looking beyond the John C. McConnell-trained HEADS UP. The 5-year-old was a progressive bumper performer, finishing 2nd in last year’s Champion Bumper to BAMBINO FEVER. On his only start over hurdles, the son of BLUE BRESIL won a Listowel maiden with plenty in hand, giving 3lb and beating next-time-out winner L’EVANGELISTE by 2.75 lengths.

The rain-softened ground should suit, and he’s the rightful favourite.

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