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Since we backed Colombia to win the group, we have plenty riding on this final group game. The good news is we strongly fancy them to finish the job against a Portuguese side we believe is badly overrated. While Portugal come into this on the back of a big win over Uzbekistan, their opponents truly made life easy for Martinez’s men.

As for Colombia, their 3-1 victory over Uzbekistan was a solid effort against an improved side. Remember, in the opening round, Colombia ground out a 1-0 win over DR Congo—the exact same Congolese team that previously held Portugal to a draw. The tactical matchup favors the South Americans here. We firmly believe Colombia will get something from this match, making the double chance the ideal value play.

Uzbekistan put up a spirited fight against Colombia last time out, but ultimately, they lacked clinical execution in the final third. Transitioning to face a tough, disciplined opponent like DR Congo is going to be a massive challenge for them. The African side knows exactly how to move the ball around efficiently, control the tempo, and create high-quality opportunities.

For DR Congo, the objective is crystal clear: if they can convert their final-third chances, they should win this match comfortably and book their ticket to the knockout rounds. Uzbekistan's defensive vulnerabilities will likely be exposed by a more fluid Congolese attack. At 1.80, the price is fair for a team with superior technical quality and a clear path to qualification.

A point each would almost certainly see both teams progress into the knockout stage. However, a draw leaves Algeria finishing third, likely forcing them into a brutal matchup against a top-tier opponent. With that motivation to push for a win in mind, we heavily question why the draw is priced as the market favorite for this game.

Analyzing the data, both teams have shown a nearly identical form line, both beating Jordan and losing to Argentina. While the market argues Austria are the superior team due to a slightly better goal difference, we are simply not buying into that narrative. Algeria possesses the tactical tools to disrupt Austria's setup. At these highly advantageous odds, we have to take Algeria, using the draw no bet option for excellent insurance.

Croatia played a strong first half against England, but they ultimately executed the wrong game plan against a deeper, more physical opponent. They bounced back with a mandatory 1-0 win over Panama, which leaves them sitting third in the table and needing a result.

Ghana secured a somewhat fortunate win over Panama via a late goal, but they proved their mettle by forcing a brilliant 0-0 draw against England. While Ghana rode their luck toward the end of that match, they clearly possess a rigid defensive plan that maximizes their roster's strengths. Since a draw is enough to guarantee Ghana second place, expect them to sit deep, compact the space, and frustrate Croatia. The double chance offers great value.

In what is turning out to be an absolute dream tournament for them, Cape Verde have managed highly impressive draws against both Spain and Uruguay. While they finished both matches with a negative Expected Goals (xG) differential, their incredible bravery and defensive work rate meant they fully deserved to share the points.

Saudi Arabia started decently with a 1-1 draw against Uruguay but were thoroughly dismantled 4-0 by Spain. The Saudis were easily contained by an opponent with something to prove, and the scoreline accurately reflected Spain's superiority. Since both teams will fancy their chances of chasing a win here, this should be an open, highly entertaining fixture. We won't pick a side, but we expect goals.

Great tournaments create great stories. Great prices create great profits.