HORSE RACING SERVICE: MONDAY’S VALUE BETS ONLINE NOW

HORSE RACING SERVICE: MONDAY’S VALUE BETS ONLINE NOW

While the overall quality of racing today may not be the highest, that certainly doesn’t mean we should be cutting back on our betting. The so-called “bread and butter” races are where the bulk of long-term profits are made, and hopefully today will be no different. I’m sharing three selections for today’s action — let’s get started.

WARNING: If you expect to profit long-term from horse racing, do not be betting the night before. While the temptation to take those seemingly generous early prices is understandable, doing so can quickly get you restricted or banned by bookmakers. Whenever you see these “night before” services claiming they constantly beat the odds, take it with a pinch of salt. After all, anyone with half a brain can outperform the market at such an early stage — but the consequences can be severe.

For the most part, AL SAYAH has been a consistent type. The Neil Mulholland-trained six-year-old has won 5 of her 20 races, including 4 from 11 over hurdles. However, over the past year the mare has risen 20 pounds in the weights and now appears to be firmly in the grip of the handicapper. Top weight won’t help her cause, and neither will the drop back in trip.

At the time of writing, DRAMATIC ENCORE looks ridiculously short in the betting. The daughter of WALK IN THE PARK was beaten 12 lengths last time out, for which she was dropped another pound by the handicapper. In my opinion, the six-year-old simply hasn’t progressed, and it’s difficult to understand why she’s trading at such short odds.

There was a little more to like about the latest run of LA MARQUISE, but she still needs to back that effort up, and that’s far from guaranteed.

I’m siding with TICKATICKATIMING, who receives plenty of weight from her rivals — something that shouldn’t be underestimated in a small field. While the Sheena West-trained eight-year-old needs to put a disappointing effort behind her, she looks well treated on the figures and conditions are ideal at a track where she has already proven herself.

JUNIOR DES MOTTES is a non-runner.

TARITINO was a good winner last time out and remains unpenalised for that success. However, that victory came on a right-handed track and in what looked a fairly weak contest.

It took a while for the penny to drop with ELIZA DOLITTLE, but she has now won three of her last eight races. As a consequence of winning her latest start by a comfortable 9½ lengths, Nick Gifford’s mare has been raised another 7 pounds by the handicapper — which looks harsh at this level. In short, the eight-year-old lines up here on a career-high handicap mark.

Despite winning only 2 of her 28 races, the one I like is GHASHAM. Up until 9 September the seven-year-old was trained by Ian Williams before moving to Dan Skelton. After three runs for the new yard, the decision was made to give the gelding a wind operation. Since then he has finished 4th of 8 and 5th of 7 in handicap company at Sedgefield and Market Rasen.

On paper that may not sound overly encouraging, but this represents an easier race than the ones he’s been contesting recently. Furthermore, he has been eased another 2 pounds by the handicapper, and this time he’s partnered by Harry Atkins, who claims a valuable 7 pounds.

The step back up to 2 miles 4 furlongs should also suit, so it’s starting to look like a “now or never” scenario.

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FORTUNATE MAN represents the in-form yard of Jonjo and A J O’Neill. The seven-year-old is a dour stayer who handles testing ground, so he’s entitled to run his race.

Although now eight years old, BIG CITY ROLLER has only raced six times under rules. Nevertheless, he won three of those starts for today’s jockey and has already proven he can perform under similar conditions.

When last seen 59 days ago, ALFIE’S PRINCESS ran no sort of race. While the Sam Thomas-trained nine-year-old is better than that effort suggests, the extra distance is far from certain to suit.

GENIETOILE also has claims, but for the winner I’m keen on FACE D’MUSIC. The Katy Price-trained seven-year-old gets into this race with a light weight and was only beaten a short head last time out. Having previously won off this mark, Shane Quinlan’s mount looks a must-include.

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